![]() ![]() Musk is going to go to orbitįor someone so into spaceflight that he’s built his own rocket ships, it’s odd that Musk hasn’t been in to space himself. And even now, he’s not particularly concerned, estimating that Apple won’t be able to make a lot of cars till around 2020. The Apple car is the worst-kept secret in Silicon Valley, and the company has even poached several Tesla engineers – something Musk has been rather dismissive of. I wouldn’t say they’re a competitor.”Īpple, however? “That’ll be more direct,” he admitted. “They’re not a car company, so they’d potentially license to other companies. And only one tech company is a Tesla competitorīut this time it’s not Google. He won’t say which one (but we’re going to guess that it starts with G and rhymes with “we’re all going to die at the hands of super-intelligent robotsoogle”). “Things move as fast as the least lucky and least competent supplier.” Only one AI firm actually scares him “One thing that makes a car very difficult is it’s an integrative product with thousands of components,” he added, and so delays tend to cascade. “Border patrol wouldn’t give us the truck because it had bullet holes in it”, he said, adding that other delays came because of tsunamis, hailstorms, factories burning down, sinking ships and earthquakes. ![]() One shipment of carpets for the car boots, for instance, was caught up in a shoot-out on the Mexican border. But Musk pointed out that not every delay to the Model X was something in Tesla’s control. The Model X was famously delayed by a number years, and for many analysts, Tesla’s biggest roadblock ahead is scaling up from a niche manufacturer to a mainstream company. You can vote for any leader you want, as long as it’s Elon. Although he felt that direct democracy would work best, he also declared himself “King of Mars”. ![]() No stranger to mild megalomania, Musk pondered what it would mean to be the head of the company shipping the first people to Mars, and decided he’d be in a position to decide the government of the planet. A rocket every two years or so after that could provide a base for the people arriving in 2024 to survive. ![]() Mars is a long way away, though, so the people wouldn’t actually arrive until 2025.īefore then, the plan is “establishing cargo flights to Mars”, getting the first delivery there by 2018 in the company’s planned “Red Dragon” ships. SpaceX is on track to launch people to the Red Planet in 2024, Musk says. Less philosophically minded people might wonder if it’s just the number of discussions that’s the crazy thing. Musk says he has had “so many simulation discussions it’s crazy”. When Bostrum described the argument in 2003, he presented it as an unappealing trilemma: basically no civilisations last long enough to develop simulations, the civilisations that do develop simulations are so different from our own that they wouldn’t simulate us, or we are almost certainly in a simulation already. “If you assume any rate of improvement at all, then the games will become indistinguishable from reality.”Īnd, Musk pointed out, if we aren’t in a simulation, the most likely reason for that isn’t that we are the first civilisation ever instead, it’s that no civilisation has ever advanced far enough to simulate reality. And soon we’ll have virtual reality, we’ll have augmented reality. “Now 40 years later we have photorealistic, 3D simulations with millions of people playing simultaneously and it’s getting better every year. “Forty years ago we had Pong – two rectangles and a dot. Without any reason to assume we’re in reality rather than a simulation, the chances of us randomly happening to be in the one option among billions that isn’t fake is billions to one. The problem is that if realistic simulations of the universe are possible, then there would very quickly be far more simulations of reality than actual reality. But now he’s introduced the world to another concept popularised by Bostrum: the simulation problem. Musk cited that fear as a reason for investing in AI company DeepMind, before it was bought by Google. Musk is no stranger to the work of philosopher Nick Bostrom, who has warned before that superintelligent AI might wipe out humanity. ![]()
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